There are many prominent investors that are either largely for or against Tesla. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has been very bullish about the electric automaker for some time now, and many of her estimates have already come true, despite skeptics insisting that her valuations and future outlook are crazy.
Recently, Wood said she expects Tesla's market share to comprise up to 25% of the total automotive market share by 2026. She went on to say that rivals may simply already be too late to the game, and they're still not doing nearly enough to catch up. However, Wood made it clear that Tesla must be successful with autonomy for its market share to rise to such heights. According to Teslarati, Wood shared in a Barron's interview:
“If Tesla is the first to be successful in autonomous in the United States, we’re beginning to believe that not only will Tesla take that biggest share of the electric vehicle market, we believe that it could take 20% to 25% share of the total auto market in five years."
Tesla has already made it clear that its competition isn't EV startups or EVs produced by legacy OEMs. Rather, the company's goal is to compete with the entire automotive industry. In other words, Tesla is battling against gas cars, not other EV makers.
Wood agrees, stating that Tesla won't likely be topped by EV markers, such as Lucid and Rivian. Despite their hugely successful vehicle launches and stock market valuations, these companies are years behind Tesla, and they're not moving toward massive production very quickly. Wood was clear to add that this is not to say companies like Rivian and Lucid won't be successful, but they're not likely a threat to Tesla.
When it comes to legacy automakers, Wood insists that they are going to struggle in a big way thanks to being late to the game, as well as moving too slowly. She said:
“It’s going to be awfully difficult for those companies to manage during the next five to 10 years. And we would bet that they will not be alive in their current state. They may be in combination with someone else, or they may go bankrupt.”
With gas-powered vehicles still paramount for legacy automakers, it would take a huge leap for them to successfully transition to EVs. Wood says they just don't have the DNA to pull it off.